MA-Sen: Brown still posts big leads, but approvals falling

(Diane Beckwith-Zink, CC-BY)

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (6/2-5, Massachusetts voters, 11/29-12/1/2010 in parentheses):

Mike Capuano (D): 38 (36)
Scott Brown (R-inc): 48 (52)
Undecided: 14 (12)

Ed Markey (D): 37 (39)
Scott Brown (R-inc): 47 (49)
Undecided: 16 (12)

Martha Coakley (D): 40
Scott Brown (R-inc): 49
Undecided: 10

Elizabeth Warren (D): 32
Scott Brown (R-inc): 47
Undecided: 21

Alan Khazei (D): 31
Scott Brown (R-inc): 50
Undecided: 19

Rachel Maddow (D): 29
Scott Brown (R-inc): 49
Undecided: 21

Bob Massie (D): 25
Scott Brown (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 27

Setti Warren (D): 23
Scott Brown (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 29
^{(MoE: �3.2%)}

When someone tries to spin a poll they don't like by saying, "Oh, but so-and-so's approvals are under 50, so-and-so polls under 50 when matched up with Republican Jesus," I tend to roll my eyes and move on. So, in the interest of consistency, I still need to start by saying, on the balance, PPP's newest poll of Massachusetts is continued good news for Scott Brown, who posts leads in the 9-10 point range against well-known Democratic figures who (except possibly for Rep. Mike Capuano) aren't going to run, and in the 20-ish ballpark against the ragtag band of Dems who are actually in this thing. Even though the Democratic case against Brown hasn't really been made yet in the local media, he's starting out in very strong position.

Nevertheless, the poll still doesn't foreclose a Democratic path to victory, showing a small but important few points of movement. Maybe the most encouraging finding for Dems here is that, unlike PPP's previous December poll and the other polls of Massachusetts in the last few months (Suffolk in April and WNEC in March), which found Brown in the low-50s, this poll finds Brown consistently under 50. His approvals are 48/36, a 12-pt spread, down from 53/29 in December (a 24-pt difference). The question for next year will be whether Brown is able to continue to differentiate himself from the rest of the GOP as he seems currently able to do (50% say he's "about right" while 33% say he's "too conservative," compared with 54% who say Republicans in general are too conservative).

The other bit of "good," relatively speaking, news for the Dems here is that their candidates so far are deeply unknown, and so far most of the undecideds seem to be on the Democratic side (consider, for instance, Newton mayor Setti Warren, about whom 74% have no opinion). Tom Jensen points to Elizabeth Warren (known to politics junkies but not among a broader audience) as another case in point:

Only 38% of voters know her well enough to have formed an opinion about her and when she's matched up against Brown 27% of Democrats are undecided compared to only 3% of Republicans. She has much more room to grow.

Interestingly, who's the best-known and best-liked Democrat? Att'y General Martha Coakley, reviled in netroots circles for, in the Senate special election, committing the political equivalent of missing a slam dunk by ramming her head into the corner of the backboard... but apparently still popular at home. She has 49/39 favorables and comes closest to Brown in a rematch, losing by 9. Compared with all the other rematches that PPP has polled lately (like gubernatorial races in Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida) that have seen newly-elected Republicans in terrible shape, this too suggests that Brown is rather uniquely able to keep declining broader Republican fortunes at arm's length.

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