This should come as something of a surprise: President Barack Obama's approval rating is near even in Georgia, with 47% of voters approving of his job performance to 48% who disapprove.
Moreover, he stands a decent chance of becoming the first Democrat to carry the Peach State since Bill Clinton in 1992. He trails the two Republican front-runners by just three points apiece, and he's ahead of Sarah Palin and Georgia native sons Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich.
Public Policy Polling (3/31-4/3, Georgia voters):
Mitt Romney (R): 46
Barack Obama (D-inc): 43Mike Huckabee (R): 48
Barack Obama (D-inc): 45Barack Obama (D-inc): 46
Newt Gingrich (R): 45Barack Obama (D-inc): 48
Sarah Palin (R): 43Barack Obama (D-inc): 44
Herman Cain (R): 39
(MoE: �4.1%)
It's quite damning for Gingrich's candidacy that he might not be able to carry his own state. Now, that wouldn't be a problem for a guy like Tim Pawlenty as Republicans don't need or expect Minnesota to win the presidency.
But Georgia?a state worth 16 electoral votes in 2012?is a bedrock of the Republican electoral strategy and a state they should be expecting to win by 10 points or more. John McCain took the state by six points in 2008 even as Obama soundly defeated him nationwide.
As for Palin, it's no longer really news that her numbers are terrible and she's losing states Republicans haven't lost in decades. Cain, the CEO of Godfather's Pizza, is not well-known even in his home state, but those who do know him give him an underwater 28/36 favorable/unfavorable evaluation, suggesting that Georgians are well aware that Godfather's Pizza sucks. (You don't see the CEO of Domino's running for office, do you? There's a reason for that).
Perhaps the most significant numbers, then, are the slim leads posted by the two nominally "acceptable" GOP candidates, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. Even the Republican frontrunners aren't getting the numbers they need in Georgia?a three-point lead in a state Republicans usually win going away is peanuts for them.
Perhaps scariest for the Republicans is that it might only get worse for them over time in the Peach State:
Even if Obama doesn't end up winning in Georgia next year the vast differences in his support along age lines suggest Democrats should be competitive in the state in the years to come. Among voters under 65 Obama's approval rating is a 52/42 spread. It's only his horrid numbers with senior citizens at 27/68 that put his numbers in negative territory overall. As whites who grew up in the segregation era die out over the next decade or two this state should start looking a lot 'purpler' than its red tinge in recent election cycles would suggest.
Maybe the Republican numbers will surge after the GOP rallies around a nominee. And maybe that nominee won't be any of these people, but rather someone that voters actually, you know, like.
But as for now, it's a sad day in Republicanville if they're running within the margin of error, at best, in conservative Georgia.
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