On a conference call today with progressive new media types, Democratic House Leader Nancy Pelosi indicated that, for the first time, she believes the United States military is prepared to withdraw from Afghanistan.
During the call, I asked Leader Pelosi "do you think the killing of Osama bin Laden will increase support in the House of Representatives for a more rapid withdrawal from Afghanistan?" While she said that she did not know the answer to that question at this time, she did relay some important information about a recent trip she took to Afghanistan.
On that trip, which took place over St. Patrick's Day weekend, Pelosi said "I was very impressed for the first time with the intention to leave." She indicated that in all conversations she had during her trip, from the highest echelons of the military and diplomatic corps to the rank and file soldiers in the field, "everything was about preparations to leave."
Pelosi added that "we will be on the President's timetable to begin the withdrawal of troops and go from there." This latter remark echoes what Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told reporters earlier in the week, that the killing of bin Laden will not result in an accelerated withdrawal timeline.
This should come as reassuring news to those of you who, like me, wish to see a military withdrawal from Afghanistan. It should not, however, come as reassuring news to those of you who, like me, had hoped that bin Laden's killing would result in an acceleration of the withdrawal timeline. Currently, withdrawal is set to begin in July, but Afghanistan security forces will not take over complete control until the end of 2014. Even after that date, it is possible that a substantial American military presence could remain stationed in Afghanistan.
Personally, I still expect popular support for withdrawal from Afghanistan, which is already on the rise, to increase further in the wake of bin Laden's demise. This is because Americans are more open to military withdrawal from a country if they believe conditions are improving in that country. For example, back during the peak of the debate over withdrawal from Iraq, more Americans supported withdrawal if they were told conditions in the country were improving than if conditions were getting worse. If that same mindset influences popular thinking on Afghanistan, it could well mean increased support for withdrawal from here on out.
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