politicaljuice916: Poll: Gov. Walker's position erodes with WI independents

Monday, March 7, 2011

Poll: Gov. Walker's position erodes with WI independents

This Milwaukee Journal Sentinal story speaks for itself:

Opinions polls show sharp divisions on Walker
Gov. Scott Walker's bitter stand-off with Democrats and labor unions in
Wisconsin has turned the newly elected Republican into a deeply polarizing
figure, eroded his standing and left him struggling to win the battle for
public opinion, a flurry of recent polls suggests.

In one new survey, 54% of Wisconsinites disapprove of Walker's performance
while 43% approve. Walker is viewed less favorably than either of his main
antagonists in the state's stormy budget debate: public employee unions and
Democrats in the Legislature. And after just two months in office, he
inspires more intense feelings?pro and con?than President Barack Obama
does in Wisconsin.

Those findings come from a statewide poll of 603 adults taken Feb. 27
through Tuesday for a conservative think tank that has surveyed regularly in
the state, the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute.

"He's not winning the message battle at this point," said University of
Wisconsin political scientist Ken Goldstein, who conducted the poll.

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All the recent polling shows a massive gap between how Republicans and Democrats in Wisconsin feel about both the governor and his budget proposals. In the WPRI poll, 68% of Republicans think things in Wisconsin are going in the right direction, while 96% of Democrats say they're on "the wrong track."

There are even bigger partisan splits on Walker's performance as governor (he has 90% approval among Republicans and 91% disapproval among Democrats).

But the WPRI survey suggests that Walker's standing among self-identified independents has slipped substantially since his election. According to exit polls, Walker won 56% of the "independent" vote last fall.

But in the new poll, 62% of independents think the state is on the wrong track, 57% disapprove of Walker's job performance, and 59% have an unfavorable view of him.

Want to know a secret? As goes Wisconsin and Gov. Walker, so goes the tea party and the GOP in 2012. Wisconsin Independents are getting a taste of strong tea, and they don't like it one bit. And since the Presidential years are likely to have a more robust and diverse electorate than the off year of 2010, especially with no current Dem-GOP enthusiasm gap, we are not likely to see a repeat of 2010.

From the Wisconsin State Journal:

Goldstein said he was struck by the intensity of people's feelings.
For instance, of the 53 percent with an unfavorable opinion of Walker, the breakdown was 45 percent "strongly disapprove" and 8 percent "somewhat disapprove." Of the 43 percent who support him, 29 percent "strongly approve," and 14 percent "somewhat approve."

"People in general, and Wisconsinites in particular, usually go more toward the middle on questions," he said. "They're going for the extremes on this. Wisconsin residents are polarized."

Polarization? Sure. But never count out the ability of the GOP to overreach with independents (just google Terri Schiavo if you've forgotten?this ABC poll is from 2005):

Poll: No Role for Government in Schiavo Case
Federal Intervention in Schiavo Case Prompts Broad Public Disapproval
Americans broadly and strongly disapprove of federal intervention in the Terri Schiavo case, with sizable majorities saying Congress is overstepping its bounds for political gain.

Standing strong? From Mark Blumenthal:

The recent vow by Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) that he "can't compromise" with Democratic legislators on union rights runs sharply counter to preferences of Wisconsinites, according to a new survey [.pdf] of the state sponsored by a conservative think tank.
The poll, conducted last week and sponsored by the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute (WPRI), finds nearly two-thirds of the state's adults (65 percent) prefer that Walker "negotiate with Democrats and public employee's unions in order to find a compromise solution" to the "current conflict over public employee benefits and collective bargaining rights." A third (33 percent) prefer the alternative, that Walker "stand strong for the plan he has proposed no matter how long the protests go on."

Overstepping? Just wait.