Gallup's first head-to-head poll of the presidential race:
President Obama's job approvals are also troubling?though not necessarily outcome-determinative:
President Obama's job approval rating is hovering around the 40% mark. This is below the rating that any of the six incumbent presidents re-elected since Eisenhower has had at the time of the presidential election. However, in August of the year before they were re-elected, Ronald Reagan (43%) and Bill Clinton (46%) were both below 50%. Obama's position of rough parity against leading GOP candidates shows that more Americans at the moment say they would vote for Obama than approve of the job he is doing ? perhaps a reflection of the continuing lack of a strong front-runner on the Republican side.
However, Gallup notes that when looking "at presidential election trial heats conducted in the late summer of the year before previous elections," major changes are very possible:
? In August 1999, Texas Gov. George W. Bush led Vice President Al Gore by 55% to 41% in a Gallup trial heat poll. That race ended up in a virtual dead heat, with Gore ultimately winning slightly more of the national popular vote than Bush.? In August 1995, Kansas Sen. Bob Dole was slightly ahead of President Bill Clinton in a Gallup poll, 48% to 46%. On Election Day 1996, Clinton beat Dole by eight points.
? In August 1983, President Ronald Reagan was ahead of Democrat Walter Mondale by only one point, 44% to 43%. Reagan went on to beat Mondale in a 59% to 41% landslide in the November 1984 election.
? In August 1979, incumbent President Jimmy Carter was tied with former California Gov. Reagan ? each getting 45% of the vote. Reagan ultimately defeated Carter by 10 points.
What concerns me the most about the national head-to-head numbers, though, is that they basically don't vary at all from Republican to Republican. While they undermine Mitt Romney's arguments that he's the most electable, they also show that victory is by no means impossible even for bona fide nutcases like Michele Bachmann. Early on, I had high hopes for what a Bachmann candidacy might do for Democratic fortunes, but now I'm definitely in "be careful what you wish for" territory.
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